Arthur Hayes is back with another market prediction that has short-term traders biting their nails. 

The BitMEX co-founder thinks Bitcoin is headed to $70k before this correction is done and dusted.

That would put BTC down around 36% from its $108,786 all-time high – a completely normal pullback in Web3.

The Macro Discussion

But that pullback’s timing gets interesting when you compare it to the non-crypto market downturn. 

The global economy is looking shakier than a house of cards in a hurricane as the S&P 500 dropped nearly 8% in a month, and Polymarket odds of a US recession in 2025 have jumped from 23% to 39%.

Hayes thinks we need to see some major financial institutions implode before central banks panic and fire up the money printers again.

The QE Rocket Fuel

There are some good precedents for what happens when central banks start quantitative easing.

The last time we got QE, Bitcoin launched from $6,000 to $69,000 – a whopping 1,050% gain that turned regular investors into crypto Twitter influencers overnight.

History doesn't always repeat but often rhymes, especially when the Fed is involved, so if those printers fire up again, we may see the next massive leg up for Bitcoin.

And Hayes is essentially telling us all to keep our powder dry until Jerome Powell hits the big red QE button again.

The Technical Tale

Bitcoin's RSI is sitting at levels not seen since August, suggesting we're definitely in oversold territory.

Meanwhile, the dollar just had one of its biggest weekly dumps since 2013, which historically has been rocket fuel for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Michael van de Poppe is already spotting a potential double bottom forming, with $83,500 as the key level to watch for a serious bounce.

Could this be the beginning of the reversal that bulls have been praying for?

The Strategy At Play

Hayes isn't telling you to go all-in at $70k – he's telling you to wait for actual QE before backing up the truck.

With this approach, you might not catch the absolute bottom, but you also won't be catching falling knives for months on end.

The real gains happen when central banks panic and flood the system with liquidity, and there’s no doubt that Jerome Powell is watching the markets tank while hovering his finger over that money printer.

It’s sort of his job to keep things at least kind of stable, so if this delicately balanced stack of economic incentives starts quivering too badly, then that button will get smashed faster than you might think. 

To Infinity And Beyond?

Bitcoin corrections are part of the game – even 36% drawdowns are standard operating procedure in bull markets.

The difference between this cycle and previous ones is that the floor keeps getting higher – from $3k to $17k to potentially $70k.

Smart money waits for macro confirmation before making big moves, which is exactly what Hayes is suggesting here – but even Hayes admits he won't catch the exact bottom – and neither will you.