January wrapped up with Bitcoin casually sitting above $100K for the first time in history.

But before you pop the champagne, there's some spicy drama brewing in the charts.

We’re now firmly below $100K (again) and some folks are biting their nails and screaming the sky is falling.

Others are loading up their bags like there’s no tomorrow. 

Chart Goes Zoom

First, the good stuff: BTC closed January at a thicc $102,412.

That's a 6% monthly gain and well above November's previous high of $96,441.

We’re witnessing history unfold before our very eyes, and it’s a beautiful sight to behold.

But there’s never a dull moment in crypto…

The Plot Twist

February 2nd rolls around, and BTC dips below $100K faster than you can scream "bear trap."

Trump slapping 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China seemed to get folks a bit spooked about where things are heading.

And there's this little thing called the U.S. jobs report dropping on February 7th that has traders biting their nails.

If it’s good, we might break $100K again. 

If it’s bad, we might fall further.

The Bear Trap Drama

Bitget's Ryan Lee is eyeing $95K as the latest line of support, and if we break that we're looking at $90K.

If you think that's scary, wait till you hear Peter Brandt talk about $75K if things get really ugly with the technicals.

That may sound like good news to come, but others will be licking their wounds and ducking their heads if we see a drop like that.

A New Hope

The spot Bitcoin ETFs might be the hero that saves the day – they're sitting on a casual $125 billion in assets.

Oh, and here's a fun fact: Bitcoin typically pumps 14.4% in February, so history is on our side.

Add between 23 and 61% gains for post-having years, and we have some serious hopium to get us through this dark winter night.

And don’t forget what the majors are saying.

VanEck sees $120K-$180K, Blockware Solutions is eyeing $150K-$400K, and Standard Chartered is keeping it tempered with $200K.

What's a Trader to Do?

For one, watch that $95K level like a hawk – it might be the best sale of 2025.

Also, keep an eye on Jerome Powell while tracking those ETF flows – BlackRock and Fidelity aren't exactly known for paper hands.

If they’re buying, there’s something cooking.

Post-halving cycles usually mean 12-18 months of good times, and Trump is actually pushing pro-crypto policies, so fundamentals are still looking good.

And, if you absolutely have to trade this in the short term, that 200-week moving average at $81K is still looking like a concrete floor.

Never A Dull Moment

Sure, we might see some volatility. We might even see $95K again.

But with $125 billion in ETF money and a halving cycle that's just getting started, these dips are starting to look like black Friday sales.

Bear traps shake out weak hands before resuming uptrends, meaning we should all pack our bags accordingly.