As Bitcoin approached $100,000, something interesting happened. Known for its insane volatility relative to traditional assets, Bitcoin seems to be calming down a bit. Volatility is significantly low while prices keep rising – something that you only see in more mature financial assets.

Is everyone’s favorite crypto finally growing up?

Sort of – Bitcoin's current one-month implied volatility index is 63.49%. Putting this number in context, volatility was almost three times higher when Bitcoin hit $64,000 in 2021. That’s a significant drop – we’re still seeing all-time highs, just with a lot less chop than we used to see. Suitable for longer-term investors, but less excitingfor swing traders. 

All said and done, today’s relative calm at much higher prices is new ground for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's volatility has slowly decreased, showing the market's growing maturity. The wild days of 2017, when 30-day volatility averaged 4.13%, seem long ago. 

Even during the market chaos of 2020, when volatility jumped to 5.17%, the swings were larger than what we see today at $100,000. While that may seem like an eternity in Web3, it proves that Bitcoin as an asset is at least maturing to some degree… and that’s a fact that traditional investors find interesting.

This lack of volatility has significant implications for Bitcoin's future. Traditional finance (TradFi) entities, famous for expressing worry about Bitcoin's volatility, are starting to find the current market more appealing. Smaller price swings make Bitcoin more attractive as a long-term hold ‒ possibly inviting careful investors who have thus far watched from the side to dip their toes into the now not-so-young crypto markets.

Things are changing fast. The butterfly spread, which measures how much Bitcoin’s price is expected to change, is around 2.25%. This means that sentiment suggests a more stable Bitcoin of around $100,000 – at least for now. 

Past patterns suggest times of low volatility often come before big market moves. The calm might set the stage for Bitcoin's next big leg upward. This pattern, along with the high price levels and interest from big players, creates a unique market situation that experienced crypto traders are already watching closely.

The composition of whales has changed a lot in recent months. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in late 2024 and Bitcoin-starved companies like MicroStrategy have created a more corporate-centric demand base for BTC. These big corporations tend to hold for longer periods and trade a lot more carefully than retail investors. This new class of Bitcoin HODLers is already helping reduce volatility in the short term and, seemingly, build a strong floor around $100,000.

Experts have different views on what this calm period means for Bitcoin's future. Some see it as a time of waiting before another significant price rise ‒ others see it as proof of Bitcoin maturing into a regular financial asset. The truth might be a mix of both ‒ a growing market with room for significant growth.

Bitcoin's current lack of volatility at these high prices is a significant development for a market once known for its surprises and wild swings. Whether this shows a permanent change in Bitcoin's market style or just a calm before the next leg up in price is unclear. What's clear is that the market has grown significantly since its early days of explosive price increases, suggesting that Bitcoin's path from a risky digital asset to an actual financial asset continues.