Bitcoin is on sale, according to hard math, trading 40% below its "energy value," while institutions are investing billions in ETFs.

Charles Edwards from Capriole just dropped the news that Bitcoin is worth $130K based on mining costs, but it's currently sitting at $78-95K, as if it forgot how to read the room.

Something has to give, and it seems like that something might be to the upside.

The Energy Value Concept Makes Sense

Post-halving math says Bitcoin should be at $130K based on energy consumption and mining costs.

With block rewards cut to 3.125 BTC, miners need higher prices to stay profitable.

Bitcoin's trading at a 40% discount to this "intrinsic value" – a gap that historically doesn't last long.

Last time we saw this kind of disconnect, Bitcoin went ballistic.

ETFs Are Inhaling Bitcoin Like It's Going Out Of Style

Spot Bitcoin ETFs just pulled in $3 billion in one week – the first time in five weeks they've had consistent inflows.

April 25th alone saw $380 million flood in, turning what looked like a dead month into positive territory.

ETF analyst Eric Balchunas called it a "Bitcoin bender" – apparently, institutions went from scared to greedy overnight.

We're now at $2.26 billion positive for April after everyone thought the ETF hype was dead.

Exchanges Are Getting Drained

36,000 BTC left Coinbase and Binance on April 25th – the largest outflow in Binance's history.

Coinbase lost 8,756 BTC ($830 million) while Binance saw 27,750 BTC walk out the door.

This isn't retail panic selling, but rather whales moving coins to cold storage for the long haul.

When coins leave exchanges like this, it usually means someone knows something.

The Fractal That Won't Die

Bitcoin's chart is looking eerily similar to Q4 2024's breakout pattern.

The largest digital asset is already up 11% this week, indicating its strongest performance of 2025 so far.

The RSI and other indicators are screaming "buy" like it's a Black Friday sale.

If history repeats, we could see another 7-10% pump that smashes through $100K.

What's Standing In The Way?

$96-97K is the boss level – lots of paper hands waiting to dump their bags.

The Fear & Greed Index is deep in "Greed" territory, which usually means a pullback's coming.

Technical indicators are getting overbought, but that hasn't stopped Bitcoin before.

MACD and moving averages are all pointing up – the stars are aligning.

The Bull Case Is Powerful

Bitcoin is trading at a significant discount while institutions are buying in large quantities.

Exchange outflows suggest that the supply squeeze is real and worsening.

Technical patterns matching previous breakouts that led to new all-time highs.

The $100K psychological barrier could trigger massive FOMO if broken.

Keep Your Feet On The Ground

Nothing goes up forever, and Bitcoin tends to liquidate overleveraged long positions.

Previous large outflows didn't always prevent corrections when macroeconomic news emerged.

Regulatory FUD could still crash the party at any moment.

But for now, the setup looks better than it has all year.