XRP is stuck in no man's land right now.

The token crashed to $1.90 earlier this month before bouncing back to $2.18, where it's basically spinning its wheels.

Now it's do-or-die time at the $2.25 resistance – a level that's rejected XRP more times than Gary Gensler has snickered over a lack of regulatory clarity (that’s… a lot). 

The Technical Setup

It’s a painful range with not much to go on. 

XRP is trading below the 100-hourly SMA at $2.1850, which is never a great sign for bulls.

That $2.25 zone isn't being pulled out of a hat – there’s some hard math backing it up as it represents the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level from the drop between $2.365 and $1.90.

Break above it, and we could see $2.35 pretty quickly, with $2.50 not far behind.

Fail here, and it's back to support hunting at $2.12, $2.05, and potentially the psychological $2.00 mark.

The fundamentals are also stacking up against XRP, which gives us a little bit more info on which to base a prediction. 

Trading volume dropped a massive 58%, suggesting retail is sitting on their hands waiting for direction, while whales are dumping millions of XRP at a historically rapid rate – never a good sign if you’re looking for deep value territory. 

All that whale action is creating severe selling pressure that the bulls need to overcome if this token wants to see daylight again.

The Bull Case

Despite the technical mess, XRP still has some serious catalysts in its corner.

Ripple's addition to the U.S. Crypto Strategic Reserve is a massive vote of confidence that most altcoins would kill for.

A whopping 88% of investors surveyed by CoinMarketCap are still bullish on XRP's recovery – of course, there’s a bit of selection bias there, but that’s still a strong ratio that exceeds expectations. 

Franklin Templeton filing for an XRP ETF shows the adults in the room still see value here, regardless of short-term price action.

The SEC Wild Card

The biggest catalyst is sitting in a courtroom, not a trading chart.

Ripple's legal battle with the SEC could finally wrap up by April, and a favorable outcome would send this thing vertical.

The regulatory clarity alone would open the floodgates for institutional money that's been sidelined for years.

This is the kind of binary event that can turn bag holders into Lamborghini shoppers overnight.

The Bitcoin Effect

Trader Tardigrade thinks Bitcoin's recovery is the key to XRP's next move.

If the big orange coin gets its act together, XRP could ride the wave past $2.40 and $2.70 resistance.

It's no secret that altcoins dance to Bitcoin's tune – when big daddy Bitcoin pumps, the small fries usually follow suit. 

This correlation might be XRP's best hope for breaking out of its current range in the short term.

Ripple To A Wave?

XRP is teetering between a decent recovery and another leg down, with the $2.25 level being the immediate battlefield. 

However, the real war is being fought in courtrooms and Bitcoin's price action, and long-term price targets range from a conservative $8 to a wildly optimistic $33 by 2025.

For now, bulls just need to focus on winning the current battle before dreaming about those future gains.