Polkadot is battling a make-or-break trendline that could send it to double digits.

The descending resistance from $6.94 to $7.63 has been capping DOT's moves like a crypto ceiling.

Meanwhile, on-chain metrics tell a different story than the price chart, with the chain roaring back to life in ways we haven’t seen in quite some time.

The Battle Lines

That pesky trendline is giving DOT more rejection than Bitcoin trying to stomach $100K… okay, that line hurt to write – we’re all feeling the burn right now. 

Either way, a clean break above $10 could rocket DOT to nearly double its current levels.

Given how choppy the market has been lately, smart money is waiting for one more retest before going all in.

The support zones at $4.50 and $4.25 are keeping the dream alive, acting as the last line of defense before things get ugly.

Polkadot's Relay Chain is showing signs of life despite the crab market we've been stuck in, with active addresses pumping whenever DOT pumps, which tells you exactly how speculative this market still is.

The address count stabilized between 5,000 and 7,500 in early 2025, which is decent but not exactly the Ethereum numbers.

The ecosystem desperately needs killer apps beyond "number go up" to keep users sticking around during the boring phases.

The Money Ebbs And Flows

Open interest in DOT futures just blasted past $1 billion, which is usually a pretty reliable sign that something's brewing under the hood.

We've seen this play out similarly before – rising open interest typically front-runs price action by a few weeks.

The last time liquidity flowed in this hard, DOT went on a face-melting rally that had everyone suddenly becoming Polkadot experts.

Current prices around $4.37 look like a steal if this pattern plays out like previous cycles.

The Bull Case Unfolds

DOT's entire future depends on smashing through that descending trendline like a bull in a china shop.

The combination of rising open interest and stabilizing active addresses is exactly what preceded previous rallies.

For sustainable growth, Polkadot needs to give users actual reasons to stay beyond just price speculation.

If sentiment continues improving, those $10 targets might end up looking conservative by the time this cycle matures.

Connecting The Dots

DOT looks primed for a move, but smart money waits for confirmation before aping in – the project sits at a critical inflection point between technical breakout and ecosystem legitimacy.

Watch for volume to spike alongside a clean break above the trendline – that's your signal that the party's starting.

But, as in all markets, resistance becomes support and support becomes resistance in an ever-evolving fight for profits – so keep your head on straight and don’t get caught in the liquidation undertow.