Bitcoin recently plunged to $81,688 before bouncing slightly to $82,775—an 8.58% drop that had leverage traders sweating bullets.

But according to Fidelity's Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer, this isn't the end of the world.

In fact, he thinks Bitcoin just found its sweet spot after months of running hot.

What The Charts Are Saying

Timmer isn't your typical crypto bro drawing random lines on TradingView – he's using two specific models to gauge Bitcoin's fair value: the internet S-curve and the wallet power curve.

According to his analysis, BTC is now "right in the middle" of these models after the dump.

To demystify, he’s ayin that Bitcoin is neither moon-ready nor in the gutter – it's exactly where the fundamentals say it should be.

It’s a rare place for the volatile digital asset to be, but worrisomely, Bitcoin's network growth has been slowing down.

Timmer called this out last month, blaming the rise of Bitcoin ETPs for soaking up demand that would've gone directly on-chain.

Since day one, BTC's price has moved in lockstep with its network growth, with occasional FOMO-driven overshoots.

This time around, the market's just correcting back to the fundamental trend line.

The Tourist Trap

Timmer asserts that this correction is mostly about flushing out the "tourists."

You know the type – normies who aped in last November when the number went up, without understanding a thing about crypto.

Open interest data and ETP flows confirm that these short-term speculators are losing their shirts and heading for the exits.

The weak hands always get shaken out eventually – a tale as old as Bitcoin itself.

The Bigger-Than-Bitcoin Bloodbath

The bloodbath wasn't limited to Bitcoin either, with over $1 billion in leveraged positions getting liquidated in just 24 hours.

The total crypto market cap shed a casual $500 billion, with major alts like ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA all suffering double-digit losses that had diamond-handers questioning their life choices.

This could all, of course, be connected to the broader macro picture – in fact, it’s more likely than in previous cycles. 

Trump just dropped tariff bombs on everyone – 25% on Canada/Mexico and 20% on China – and traditional markets are feeling the pain too, with the S&P 500 having its worst day of 2025 on Monday, dropping 1.8%.

European markets also took a beating as reality set in that trade wars might not be "easy to win" after all.

All’s Fair That Ends Fairly

When a Fidelity exec says Bitcoin is fairly valued after a dump, it's essentially Wall Street-speak for "buy the dip” – after all, smart money focuses on fundamentals during volatility while retail panic sells.

The market will eventually stabilize once the tourist exodus completes and only the conviction holders remain.

Not financial advice, but historically, "fairly valued" Bitcoin hasn't stayed that way for long.