The FTX bankruptcy estate just loaded the SOL cannon, and they're about to fire 11.2 million Solana tokens at the beginning of March.

That's $1.57 billion worth of SOL hitting the market all at once.

Let’s hope these newly-endowed HODLers have diamond hands.

The Big Release

We're talking about 2.2% of Solana's entire circulating supply here.

March kicks off the party, with 11.2M tokens unlocking at the beginning of the month – smaller unlocks will follow in April and May.

This isn’t just a random airdrop of SOL tokens, by the way – they're from the infamous FTX collapse, meaning that HODLers have been waiting quite a while for this retribution and should still be in profit despite the recent downturn.

The bankrupt exchange auctioned them off to institutions at discount prices during their cleanup.

Who Bought What

Galaxy Digital scored the biggest haul of 25.52M SOL at $64 each.

Pantera Capital grabbed 13.67M tokens but paid more at $95.

Figure picked up a smaller stack of 1.8M SOL at $102 per token.

Arthur Cheong from DeFiance Capital confirmed he got in on Galaxy's OTC deal and isn't planning to sell anytime soon, so hopefully, he sets a precedent for the broader market. 

SOL's been in free-fall lately, down 35% in the past month, with the coin just bouncing off a nasty four-month low of $136.

Its market cap shrank by a brutal $10B during this bloodbath and is now trading around $140 – SOL's been fighting to hold support ahead of this massive unlock.

Bull Case

Not everyone thinks this spells doom for Solana.

These institutions paid good money for their SOL – Galaxy's already in profit at current prices.

Strong auction demand suggests smart money wants SOL exposure regardless of short-term pain.

If buyers distribute tokens gradually instead of dumping, this could be a nothing burger.

Bear Case

But the numbers are just spooky – 11.2M tokens is A LOT of potential selling pressure.

Some institutions might be underwater on their purchases and looking to cut losses.

The overall market's still shaky, and this kind of supply shock rarely helps prices.

Weak hands might panic-sell, anticipating the worst, creating a self-fulfilling dump.

Up, Down, Or Sideways?

Keep an eye on exchange inflows in the first week of March – that will be the tell-tale sign if these folks are heading for the exit or not.

If tokens start flooding exchanges, that's a serious warning sign.

Watch how Galaxy and Pantera handle their massive stacks in this first week following the unlock since it will likely determine the short-term direction.

Anybody’s Guess

This is crypto – anything can happen, but smart money bought these tokens for a reason, despite knowing this unlock date.

Solana's ecosystem keeps growing regardless of price action, so on a fundamental level, the sky is still blue for the network.

Whether you're bullish or bearish, expect serious volatility when these tokens hit the market and a lot of nail biting to go with it.