If you've been watching HBAR lately, you might need a pep talk. 

The altcoin just failed to crack $0.40 and tumbled back to $0.30 faster than its supporters will revert to arguments about its partnerships and fundamentals.

Sorry folks, all the king's men might be here to support the network, but the price just doesn’t agree with the fundamental analysis you’re cooking up.

Let’s dive in.

The Money's Not Flowing

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is painting a pretty grim picture. 

It's hanging around the zero line like a wallflower at a party – which, when analyzing trading flows, means that nobody's really buying or selling with any real conviction.

Turns out HODLers are doing what they do best: sitting on their hands and waiting for someone else to make the first move. 

You can't really blame them when the chart looks about as exciting as a freshly painted wall that still needs to dry – for markets to get hyped, then need inflows, outflows, and action.

Bitcoin Who?

What might actually bring some of that conviction to the party is the fact that HBAR's correlation with Bitcoin just dropped to 0.64. 

For our non-math friends out there, that means HBAR's increasingly doing its own thing and isn’t tracking the Bitcoin price.

That could be good in the long term, but given Bitcoin’s recent setup and all-time highs, that spells disaster in the short term – HBAR is getting exactly zero of that momentum translated to its chart.

Hence, while Bitcoin is eyeing that juicy $105K level, HBAR is off in the corner, struggling to keep its head above $0.30. 

It's like watching your friend's startup fail while your giant bags of Tesla stock keep on pumping.

Sure, it had potential, but ol’ reliable once again delivered the best results in the end. 

The Chart Looks… Not Good

Let's talk price action and fair warning – it's not pretty.

HBAR has been stuck in this annoying range between $0.33 and $0.25 since December, just sort of crab walking.  

Now that it's lost that $0.33 support, bears are getting hungry for more downside – remember, every time a chart holds resistance, that resistance gets stronger, and the support below gets weaker. 

For now, the real potential pain point is that $0.25 level. 

It’s growing weaker, and if that breaks, we might see panic selling kick in and drive this thing down to $0.20. 

And recall that buy pressure just isn’t there to absorb the downside – this could get ugly fast. 

For the sake of fairness, let’s break down the two scenarios we see:

The Bear case says that if HBAR keeps playing limbo under $0.33, $0.25 is probably coming up for a test. 

We break that, and we're looking at $0.20 – a price point that would have seemed impossible during last month’s market euphoria.

The Bull case (if you eschew technicals) suggests there's always hope for HBAR to somehow claw its way back above $0.33 and make it stick.

If that happens, we might see those $0.40 dreams come back to life. 

But that's a big "if" given everything we’ve outlined above.

H-Barred From The Moon?

HBAR is at a crossroads – and not the fun kind. 

It needs to either find its mojo quickly or accept that we might be in for an extended stay at these levels.

For now, watch those key levels like a hawk. 

$0.33 above and $0.25 below will be the deciding factors between "I told you so" and "should have bought more.