The holiday squeeze

With US markets closed, thin liquidity pushed Bitcoin up toward $80,500 on Monday. Sellers rejected the move. The $82,000 level has now turned price back three times in two weeks, and the 50-week moving average near $79,700 remains unreclaimed. Ethereum hovered around $2,470 and XRP near $1.39.

Liquid: most of the money comes back

After Blockstream confirmed the Elements bug was patched, the self-described white-hat attackers returned roughly 3,400 BTC on Monday. They kept around 598 BTC, worth about $47 million, as a self-appointed bounty. Blockstream says the federation will maintain the one-to-one peg despite the shortfall. Whether keeping $47 million of unsolicited Bitcoin counts as responsible disclosure or theft with partial restitution is an open legal question.

India tokenises bonds

Public-sector lender REC raised 5 billion rupees from 18 investors in the first issuance under SEBI's Demat 2.0 pilot, which lets corporate bonds be issued and held as tokens on a ledger run by the statutory depositories. The system connects to the Reserve Bank of India's wholesale CBDC and settles atomically, removing the gap between money and bond movement.

The CLARITY countdown

Eight days from the Senate cloture vote, prediction markets sit near 18% for 2026 enactment. The Sheriffs' objection is gone; the calendar problem is not. Republicans are expected to release revised text this week incorporating Democratic requests.

Why this matters

A holiday rally with no follow-through tells you the buyers above $80,000 are not yet stronger than the sellers. The week ahead brings PPI, CPI and the two biggest policy events of the quarter. Position sizes matter more than opinions.