Polymarket just got its report card, and the prediction market is scoring straight A's with a few surprising C's thrown in.

Data guy Alex McCullough pulled the receipts, and it turns out Polymarket nails outcomes 94% of the time just four hours before they happen.

The Countdown To Accuracy

Four hours before an event? Polymarket hits 94% accuracy.

Twelve hours out? Still crushing it at 90%.

A full day before? Slightly worse at 88.5%, but still better than most humans with fancy degrees.

But here's the weird part – when predicting stuff a whole month out, accuracy jumps back over 90%.

It's like Polymarket gets confused in the middle but knows the beginning and end of the story.

The Online Oracle

A ton of Polymarket's bets are on super-unlikely events with less than 5% odds.

These are basically "Will aliens land tomorrow?" type scenarios where "NO" is the obvious answer.

So when counting total accuracy, all these easy "NO" markets pump up the numbers by a lot – when you take those out, the picture gets a lot messier.

Sports Betting Is The Weak Spot

Polymarket stumbles hard when it comes to sports.

The platform doesn't have many "long-shot" sports markets, so their accuracy takes a hit.

It turns out that predicting if the Knicks will win is way more complicated than predicting if Trump will tweet something controversial.

Sports bettors might want to stick with traditional platforms for now.

When users aren't sure, they tend to bet "YES" – it's basic human optimism at work.

This "acquiescence bias" means events often show higher probabilities than they should.

Then there's the classic crypto herd mentality – when money starts flooding one side of a market, everyone follows like they're buying a memecoin at launch.

Low liquidity is another killer – some markets are so thin that a single whale can move odds more than actual information.

The Real-World Impact

Polymarket's short-term accuracy is no joke – 94% right before events is better than most experts on TV.

It's like having a crystal ball that gets clearer the closer you get to an event.

But that tendency to overestimate probabilities means you need to adjust what you're seeing mentally.

When Polymarket says 70%, it might really be 60%.

The strangest finding is how Polymarket somehow gets more accurate at the one-month mark than the one-week mark.

It's like the wisdom of crowds works best either right before an event or when it's still far away.

The middle ground is where things get messy – perhaps that's when speculation overtakes information.

Could this pattern apply to other markets, too? Crypto traders might want to take note.

Poly Want A Market?

Polymarket is freakishly good at predicting outcomes, especially right before they happen.

But don't blindly trust the odds – the platform consistently overestimates probabilities across the board.

For the best results, focus on high-liquidity markets and mentally adjust those percentages downward.

And if you're looking for the sweet spot, either bet right before an event or a full month ahead – just avoid that accuracy dead zone in between.