A Different Kind of User Behavior

Robinhood could see greater upside from the expansion of prediction markets than Coinbase, according to analysis from Mizuho. The key difference lies in how users are expected to fund their activity.

Mizuho argues that Robinhood users are more likely to add fresh capital to participate in prediction markets, while Coinbase users tend to redeploy funds already sitting in crypto accounts.

That distinction matters for revenue growth.

Why Prediction Markets Favor Robinhood

Prediction markets function more like trading and wagering products than long-term investment vehicles. Robinhood’s user base is already accustomed to event-driven trading, short-term positioning, and frequent capital inflows tied to specific opportunities.

Mizuho highlighted that Robinhood users often fund accounts in response to new features or products, rather than reallocating existing balances. This behavior creates incremental volume instead of internal churn.

For Robinhood, that translates into:

• Higher net inflows

• Increased transaction volume

• More frequent engagement

• Stronger monetization per user

Coinbase Faces a Different Dynamic

Coinbase users, by contrast, already hold significant crypto balances. When they engage with new products like prediction markets, they are more likely to shift existing assets rather than deposit new funds.

From a revenue perspective, this limits upside. Internal reallocations do not necessarily increase total assets on platform or generate the same level of incremental fees.

Mizuho does not suggest Coinbase is poorly positioned. Rather, it sees less marginal benefit compared to Robinhood in this specific category.

Product Design Also Plays a Role

Robinhood’s app is designed around simplicity and fast execution. Prediction markets fit naturally alongside options, equities, and event-based trading already familiar to its users.

Coinbase’s platform, while powerful, is still perceived primarily as a crypto investment venue. Prediction markets represent a behavioral shift for many of its users rather than a natural extension.

This difference could influence adoption speed.

A Growing Competitive Area

Prediction markets are quickly becoming one of the most competitive segments in fintech and crypto. Regulatory clarity, improved user interfaces, and broader distribution are bringing these products closer to mainstream audiences.

Mizuho believes platforms that can attract new money, not just recycle existing capital, will capture the most value.

At the moment, that dynamic appears to favor Robinhood.

What to Watch Next

Investors will be watching user behavior closely as prediction markets scale. Key signals include net deposits, average trade size, and frequency of participation.

If Robinhood continues to attract fresh capital around event-based markets, it could strengthen its position as a diversified trading platform beyond equities and options.

For Coinbase, the opportunity remains real, but upside may depend more on expanding its user base rather than deepening activity among existing holders.