It looks like retail traders are starting to get cold feet while Bitcoin holds strong above $100k.

And while they’re freaking out, whales are sitting comfy in their positions and probably laughing at the panic selling going on.

Fresh data from CryptoQuant shows an interesting split in the market – and it might tell us where we're headed in the medium term.

The Great Retail Exodus

January's been wild, but Bitcoin has held pretty strong, given the behind-the-scenes selling frenzy.

Turns out small traders shipped about 6,000 BTC (that's $625M if you're counting) to Binance. 

Everyone's trying to front-run the top yet again as they break the cardinal rule of Bitcoin: HODL.

But it’s not everyone – larger holders have barely budged and seem to be waiting for a larger move before deciding which way to swim. 

Whales Do What?

Big money has barely blinked by comparison, giving a 6:1 ratio in retail's favor when it comes to volume flows.

Whale wallets only moved about 1,000 BTC ($104M) to exchanges – comparative pocket change for these players.

If you're new to reading the tea leaves, this is pretty typical behavior all things considered. 

Retail always gets scared at big round numbers while whales keep stacking. 

It’s a bit like Chicken Little waiting for the sky to fall, and it’s a tale as old as crypto itself.

Google, Pull That Up

CryptoCon has been doing some galaxy brain analysis with Google Trends data to give us the scoop. 

He threw an RSI on Bitcoin search interest, and the patterns look spicy, with normies starting to Google "Bitcoin" more and more every time the price pumps. 

But, they seem to immediately lose interest right before we hit new highs – goldfish brain manifest.

According to CryptoCon’s charts, we just wrapped up the "ATH move" phase, and the RSI is now reset. 

That means we might be gearing up for the "First Cycle Top” – that’s far from the final top of the cycle, by the way.

Some analysts are throwing around $150K predictions for Bitcoin this cycle, while big boys like Larry Fink are calling for all the way up to $700K BTC. 

So, while retail is busy selling the news, the whales' behavior tells an entirely different story.

Only Up From Here?

Look, we've been here before.

When small traders panic sell and whales stay put, it suggests you should listen to the big fish – they’re whales for a reason.

Could Bitcoin dump from here? Sure, in the short term. 

But it’s definitely worth asking why, how far down, and for how long it will stay down, before you decide to hit that sell button.