Bitcoin’s famous four-year cycle might have just met its match in the form of Trump's latest executive order. 

On January 23, he dropped "Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology," and Bitwise's Matt Hougan thinks it could rewrite crypto's oldest pattern.

Could the bull and bear ebbs and flows of years past finally be relegated to the history books?

Breaking the Cycle

Every four years, the Bitcoin price moves like clockwork.

We spend some time rocketing to the moon, then a couple of years tumbling back down towards Earth – so far, it’s a journey that’s been firmly up and to the right. 

That's been Bitcoin's rhythm since… well, forever.

It’s all timed to the halvings when the reward for mining new Bitcoin gets cut in half. 

The last one just hit us on April 19, 2024 – block rewards went from 6.25 to 3.125 Bitcoin.

But Trump's orders might be changing this harmonious cycle.

Calling crypto "crucial" for America's economic future and establishing a national digital asset reserve that needs filling could spell a level of capital inflow that breaks the ups and downs of years past. 

Keeping seized Bitcoin instead of auctioning it also has the capacity to cut out some significant sell pressure, and that’s new territory in and of itself.

The Money Man's Take

Hougan isn’t mincing words as he calls for Bitcoin to double and soar past $200,000 this year, all powered by ETF flows and government buying. 

Usually, year three means a bounce back (5% monthly), and year four means a slowdown (4% monthly). 

But this time feels different.

It's not all moonshots, though, as Hougan spots some classic bubble signs.

There’s already too much borrowing too many derivatives, and everyone seems to be raising capital for Bitcoin buys. 

But here's the twist: Trump's policies might make the crashes less scary than they’ve been in the past. 

With the government stepping in to score a good deal during dips, that could spell totally new market dynamics. 

New Admin, New Frameworks

Trump is also building infrastructure – a President's Working Group on Digital Assets, clear regulatory boundaries, and actual coordination between agencies are all unfolding. 

When was the last time crypto got that kind of support?

We might be finally watching crypto grow up. 

Instead of boom-bust cycles, we might start seeing sustained growth with milder corrections, stabilizing the whole market.

The four-year cycle has been the gravity of crypto since Bitcoin started. 

However, we might be watching that law get broken between Trump's order and institutional money flooding in. 

Will a new rule of thumb emerge to replace it, or are we firmly in uncharted waters for our still-young industry?