The tape

Bitcoin settled at $76,838 on Sunday, down 0.56% on the day, with rate-hike odds for Wednesday near 90%. Ethereum closed at $2,477 (-1.9%), Solana at $99.25 (-2.5%) and XRP at $1.34 (-1.9%). The week's range was $76,000 to $80,500; price failed to reclaim the 50-week moving average at roughly $79,700 and sits well below the 365-day average near $81,700. Long-term holders distributed about 539,000 BTC in the $77,100–80,200 zone over the past 30 days.

Flows: rotation, not capitulation

US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $462.7 million across four straight sessions (8–11 September), ending a three-week accumulation streak. Ethereum ETFs took in around $197 million over the same period. Total Bitcoin ETF assets remain near $97.5 billion.

New hedging venue

The CFTC granted US institutions direct access to Bitcoin perpetual futures on the Singapore Exchange, giving them a regulated way to hedge during Asian hours ahead of US policy decisions.

Corporate treasuries diverge

Strive and Capital B bought the dip. Strategy paused purchases to retire preferred stock and raised its buyback authorisation to $2 billion. Miner Bitdeer sold its entire weekly output of 293 BTC ($22.6 million), adding nothing to treasury, a structural source of sell pressure if other miners follow.

XRPL stress test

The XRP Ledger processed a record batch of 2,768 transactions in 3.8 seconds during an unplanned load event without disruption.

The set-up

Tuesday 15 September, 14:15 ET: CLARITY Act cloture vote, 60 votes needed. Wednesday 16 September, 14:00 ET: FOMC decision with the dot plot. The current target range is 3.50–3.75%; a hike puts it at 3.75–4.00%.

Why this matters

A hike validates the 10-year yield's push toward 5% and pressures $76,000. A pause removes immediate dollar demand. Either way, watch whether ETF creations resume; that is the tell.