Fidelity's macro guru Jurrien Timmer just dropped some serious alpha about the S&P 500's wild ride.

After watching the index nosedive 20% from its ATH, he's calling for a major bounce – but don't get too comfortable.

This 16-year bull market might be entering its endgame, and the "buy the dip" strategy that's been printing money since 2009 could finally be running on fumes.

The Bounce Back Theory

The S&P 500 has been swinging above and below its trendline like a crypto chart at the end of a market cycle.

Timmer is watching this technical pattern that has been playing out since December 2011, and the pendulum has swung way too far into bearish territory.

He's essentially saying we've had enough pain to justify taking the other side of the trade – classic contrarian hope that has some historical backing.

Previous 20% drawdowns, such as the 2018 mini-bear, were followed by face-melting rallies, so we could be setting up for something similar.

The Final Boss Level

However, it can’t last forever – Timmer believes the secular bull market that began after the 2008 financial crisis is entering its swan song.

This is less of “buy the dip” territory, and potentially the end of an era that's been making investors rich for nearly two decades.

De-globalization and de-dollarization are threatening to disrupt the entire market like a classic Web3 rug pull, but with significantly more macroeconomic implications.

The "hodl US tech forever" strategy, which has worked for decades, is showing serious cracks in its foundation.

The Great Rotation

The Magnificent Seven tech whales that drove the market are running out of gas – much like an L1 blockchain with scaling issues, there’s too much capital chasing too few actual opportunities..

Tesla and Nvidia are bleeding terribly and show no signs of healing anytime soon.

Meanwhile, boomer value stocks and international equities are outperforming – the MSCI EAFE index is up 11% this year, while tech is getting wrecked.

It's like watching Bitcoin dominance drop during altcoin season – suddenly everything else is pumping while the former leaders cool off.

Survival Strategy

Timmer's advice is essentially: stop chasing overvalued tech and start looking for actual value.

Quality companies trading below fair value are the new meta, especially if they're not in the US.

Global diversification is no longer just a hedge; it's becoming the primary strategy as US market dominance wanes faster than last year's meme coins.

We're potentially entering an entirely new market regime – expect different sector leadership and probably lower returns across the board.

The Bottom Line & End Of The Road

The S&P 500 appears poised for a technical bounce after being severely underperforming.

However, the bigger picture is far more concerning – the easy mode bull market that began in 2009 may be nearing its final chapter.

The "number goes up" tech narrative could be coming to an end, and investors who don't adapt might end up like those still waiting for their 2017 ICO bags to recover.

It's time to start thinking about a market that doesn't just reward blind FOMO in US tech giants.