The suits at JPMorgan are getting bearish on crypto again.

Something about futures markets being wonky and institutions taking their balls home instead of wading around in the market.

But, naturally, we've heard this same song every time Bitcoin dumps more than 5%, and by now we’ve learned to watch what these big players are actually doing, not just listen to what they’re saying.

Figures On The Board

The total crypto market cap just dropped from $3.72T to $3.17T in a hurry, and CME futures are doing that weird thing where they're trading below spot.

That’s not a great sign for the crypto markets, but then again, this market is still young and remains choppy as retail waits for massive institutions to find their footing.

JPMorgan's head quant Nikolaos thinks this is super bearish though – we’re not sure if he’s new to Bitcoin, firmly rooted in TradFi, has his own position to shill, or all of the above.

Usually, these futures trade way above spot because Bitcoin typically goes up… at least when it’s been behaving like it has lately. 

We're talking 10% premiums that make DeFi yields look conservative – everyone wants a slice of that digital gold. 

But now they're trading below spot like it's 2022 all over again – you know, back when the market was melting down and folks were heading to prison?.

Why The Suits Are Scared

The TradFi bros think there's no catalyst until Papa Trump blesses us with crypto policies, and becuase of that, all those fancy momentum funds are pulling out faster than leverage traders during a flash crash.

Even Ethereum's charts are making the quants cry… so much for that sprint to $4000.

But remember, this is the same JPMorgan that was huffing hopium about $14B flowing into SOL and XRP ETFs, so that tune has changed on a dime.

The change of peace means they're more bearish than Craig Wright's chances of being Satoshi (remember, the court already confirmed he is not that guy.) 

It’s funny how these banks change their minds so quickly… it’s almost as if the goal isn’t to navigate the markets with their own capital, but to use their authority ot bravado to get retail to take certain actions that most benefit their companies. 

Not a bad strategy, but not something we can really vibe with in good faith. 

Not A Good Look

A slight majority – 51% – of traders are more worried about Trump's tariffs than crypto prices as institution adoption slows down compared to its previous massive explosion. 

71% of TradFi still doesn't want to touch crypto - bullish if you think about it, as there’s still so much gas in the tank left for institutional inflows.

JPMorgan has been wrong about crypto more times than we can count at this point – remember that CEO Jamie Dimon said he’d fire anyone he caught trading Bitcoin with their own money.

Every time they get bearish, Bitcoin usually decides to pump to prove them wrong.

Oh, and Dimon also called Bitcoin a fraud on multiple occasions – a silly look given they're now selling crypto products.

Bringing It Home

Markets go up, markets go down, and JPMorgan writes reports about it to coax retail into doing what it wants.

But if you've been here longer than a day, you know institutional FUD is coming from the same banks that slowly built out their own crypto trading desks and businesses.

Remember: Watch what these big firms do, don’t just listen to what they say.